Dr. Philip McMillan, John McMillan
In a quiet corner office overlooking Zurich’s financial district, insurance analysts have been desperately crunching numbers to get their medical and life insurance forecasts in line with a stubborn reality costing them millions of dollars a year. A groundbreaking report published in September, 2024 from the insurance giant Swiss RE has finally acknowledged what many have observed but few have been willing to discuss: excess deaths continue to plague Western nations at alarming rates, even four years after the initial COVID-19 outbreak.
Alarming Mortality Trends
The story begins with raw data – mortality figures that should have returned to baseline after the pandemic’s acute phase. Instead, they’ve settled into a new, higher plateau. In the United States, excess deaths hover between 3-7% above pre-pandemic levels, while the United Kingdom reports figures between 5-8%. These figures represent hundreds of thousands of lives, not just arbitrary numbers on a page; they corroborate a fundamental shift in mortality patterns that has caught the attention of the world’s largest reinsurance companies.
Swiss RE’s analysis paints a particularly sobering picture. Their forecasts suggest elevated mortality rates could persist until 2033, with the United States potentially maintaining levels up to 3% above baseline and the United Kingdom hovering around 2.5%. This persistence defies actuarial expectations – after all, the high mortality during the pandemic should have led to lower death rates in subsequent years.
Perhaps most striking is the pattern among younger populations. Statistical analysis reveals a remarkable 19-sigma increase in sudden cardiac deaths among those aged 0-54 years, resulting in approximately 568 excess deaths in this age group. For statisticians, a 19-sigma event is virtually impossible under normal circumstances – it’s the kind of deviation that should occur once in many lifetimes.
Breaking the Institutional Silence
The insurance industry’s acknowledgment of this trend marks a significant departure from previous institutional silence. While governments and health authorities have often downplayed or dismissed concerns about excess mortality, insurers can no longer ignore the financial implications of this sustained increase. Their business model depends on accurate mortality predictions, and these patterns are forcing a fundamental reassessment of risk calculations.
Looking deeper into the data reveals a complex web of contributing factors. Swiss RE identifies respiratory infections, cardiovascular complications, cancer, and metabolic disorders as key drivers of the increased mortality. But these clinical categories tell only part of the story. The timing and persistence of these elevated death rates suggest something more systemic may be at play.
The implications extend far beyond the insurance industry’s bottom line. These trends represent a genuine public health crisis that demands investigation. Despite clear evidence of unprecedented changes in mortality patterns, government and academic research on these findings remains notably absent. In a vacuum of scientific inquiry speculation runs rampant, obfuscating any concrete answers.
The insurance industry’s projections through 2033 suggest this isn’t a temporary anomaly but rather a long-term shift in mortality patterns. Even under optimistic scenarios, excess deaths are expected to remain elevated until at least 2027 in the United States and 2028 in the United Kingdom. More pessimistic forecasts extend this timeline significantly further.
Actuarial Challenges
The situation presents a particular challenge for actuaries, who must now recalibrate their models to account for this new reality. Traditional actuarial tables, built on decades of stable mortality patterns, no longer accurately reflect the risks insurers face, implying fundamental changes in how life insurance policies are priced and structured.
The story of excess deaths is still unfolding, but the insurance industry’s acknowledgment of it marks a turning point. While politicians and health authorities continue to debate these trends, insurers have made their position clear through their forecasts and risk assessments. Their data provides compelling evidence that something unprecedented is occurring in mortality patterns across Western nations.
As this reality continues to unfold, the question remains: what will it take to prompt a comprehensive investigation into these troubling trends? The insurance industry has broken its silence, but their revelations raise more questions than they answer. The numbers tell us something has changed fundamentally in mortality patterns across the Western world. Understanding why may be the most crucial public health challenge of the coming decade.
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